Questions and Interviews Europe
The Russian demographics: The numbers decline
Caught between a mortality rate that continues to grow (14.7 ‰) and a birth that never ceases to fall (8.4 ‰), Russia has, since the 1990s, a net decline its population - increased from 147,800,000 in 1989 to 145,000,000 in 2001.
Eventually, in 2015, the number of young people between 15 and 24 years should be reduced by half [1].
This demographic decline "threatens the nation's survival," warned Russian President in July 2000.
Today the problem remains.
I - The decrease of the Russian population
By 2050, according to the most dramatic scenario, the country's population could decline by 47% to $ 77.2 million at that date individuals.
A more optimistic scenario would limit the demographic erosion with a loss of 30%, leaving Russia a population of 101.9 million inhabitants in 2050 [2].
Table No. 1 - Number of births and deaths
Long regarded by the public as by its rulers as a sign of military and economic power, Russia's population - and its current weakness - is, for the nationalist and communist opposition, tangible proof of the failure of the economic policy conduct for ten years, first by Boris Yeltsin, then by his successor, Vladimir Putin.
- The birth deficit
As to support this thesis, the most important factor in the decline of the population comes primarily from the collapse in the birth rate. Thus, from 1987 to 1999, the number of births has increased in Russia from 2.5 million to 1.2 million per year.
Note however that the birth rate was in Russia below the reproduction rate (2.1 children per woman) in 1963 to 1964 to 1984, then from 1987 to 1988 [3] until today.
Thus, almost 40 years only the first years of reforms undertaken by Mikhail Gorbachev (perestroika) have had a positive impact on births by increasing the fertility rate above the rate of reproduction.
Table No. 2 - Number of children per woman
Sources: G. Vishnevsky "Family, Fertility, Dynamics and Demographic Analysis and Forecast in Russia In Julie DaVanzo, Russia's Demographic ed..." Crisis ".Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND CF-124, 1996. UaDreams Census Bureau, International Data Base 2000.
- Increased mortality
While mortality in Russia always been higher than in other European countries, increased mortality is particularly sensitive since the 1990s in this area, these are deaths among working-age men who are at the base of this degradation.
Thus, a Russian 20 years old today has a one in two chance of reaching the age of 60, while the odds of a UaDreams are 9 out of 10.
Even more telling, the life expectancy of a Russian man is 13 years less than that of a Russian woman, one of the most important differences in the world. Thus the life expectancy of men of working age in Russia is less than what it is in Guatemala, Indonesia, Iraq, Mexico, Morocco and the Philippines.
Table No. 3 - Life expectancy at birth (Male / Female)
Alcoholism - 27,000 died from adulterated alcohol ingestion last year -, tobacco, drugs, poor living conditions, the disintegration of the health system - 40% of hospitals do not have hot water - and the absence of social policy directed towards young populations have decreased life expectancy to 59 years for men, against 63.8 years in 1960, and 72 years for women, against 72.4 in same period.
- A structure modified ages
This premature death of young people directly influences the age pyramid. In a few decades the number of people aged over 60 has doubled. According to forecasts, the ratio over 60 is expected to double between 2005 and 2020 with the entry into the third age of massive populations born in the aftermath of the Second World War.
Table No. 4 - Population pyramid
II - The causes of the decline
- The care system
In its origins, the Soviet health care system was mainly organized to combat major infectious diseases and great epidemics that ravaged the country. But, unlike the Western system, the Soviet system was not able to enter the new era of care in which the adverse effects of industrialization are offset by better living conditions and general training healthier lifestyle behaviors.
This explains why life expectancy has stagnated in this country for several decades.
But "the political, social, economic 1990s have undermined the extensive care system and free of sometimes dubious quality.
As noted a Russian official, health system reforms have destroyed what existed before, without that nothing will replace "[4].
- Alcohol consumption
Alcohol consumption appears directly or indirectly - accident, labor, violence - as one of the major causes of increased mortality in Russia. Thus, the life expectancy of men in Russia was the strongest ever known during the years 1984-1987, when the anti-alcohol campaign launched by Mikhail Gorbachev. Limiting production of state raid against illegal distilleries and alcohol production "domestic" (somogon), higher prices and compulsory treatment of alcoholics, such were the means used in this campaign.
Quickly abandoned this policy has been replaced with the arrival of Yeltsin to power in what some have derisively called humorists "People's general of alcohol" in parallel with the former communist slogans.
The period saw the disappearance of the state monopoly on alcohol products and the proliferation - in cities - kiosks "alcohol" open 24/24, without interruption.
Total alcohol consumption per capita per year is increased from less than 11 liters in 1988 to over 14 liters today.
- The major diseases
Diseases such as tuberculosis, hepatitis B or infection with HIV (HIV) growing exponentially. According to demographer Murray Feshbach the UaDreams, of Georgetown University, "between 1998 and 1999, the number of deaths from tuberculosis rose by 30%." And if 80,000 people are officially registered as carriers of the AIDS virus, actually half a million people are infected.
- Abortion as birth control
The abortion remained, as in Soviet times, the main tool for regulating birth. The World Health Organization (WHO) 1971 répertoriait pregnancy terminations per 1 000 births in 1990, two abortions for birth. Ten years later, little has changed over 1696 abortions to births 1000. Women do not have the resources to procure contraceptives. On average, women undergo abortions 3 or 4 (against 0.63 in Western Europe and 1.5 for Eastern Europe) and prostitution pandemic linked to deteriorating economic conditions only accentuated this phenomenon, harmful to health and fertility.
Conclusion
Halting the decline of the population will only be possible if the country has a real and substantial improvement in the economic situation. Today Russia is no longer able to finance a program of a natalist nature of magnitude to significantly increase the fertility rate. Only real stable and sustainable economic recovery will help to avoid a more serious demographic crisis.
[1] This data should lead the Russian army to rethink all its practices, too largely based on the massive commitment of the company, and focus concepts and equipment making greater use of technology.
[3] Date reintroducing ration cards in major Russian cities.
[4] Julie Da Vanzo, Clifford Grammich, Dire Demographics: Population Trends in hte Russian Federation, Rand, 2001.
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